2025 Hinoan Independence Referendum

The 2025 Hinoan Independence Referendum is a planned referendum of the Hinoan electorate on the issue of independence from Yamatai, to be held in 2025, 50 years after Yamatai assumed sovereignty over Hinomoto from Chisei. The agreement for such a referendum to be held was part of the Chisei-Yamatai Agreement of Mutual Understanding that served as the official document that transferred Hinomoto's sovereignty from Chisei to Yamatai, ratified by both the Chiseian and Yamataian governments. As the power of the present Government of Hinomoto is devolved from that of Yamatai, the government of Hinomoto is thus also bound to hold the independence referendum in 2025. Due to the Yamataian government's policy of non-interference with Hinoan politics, it will be the Hinoan government's responsibility to hold the independence referendum in 2025.

Hinomoto was an independent state until 1850, when the Treaty of Fujishima enacted a national merger between Hinomoto and Yamatai, with Hinomoto officially joining the Yamataian Empire. During the Second Escar-Varunan War, Hinomoto was invaded and occupied by Chisei, which continued to administer the territory following the end of the war. In 1975, control of Hinomoto was officially returned to Yamatai, which agreed to allow the territory self-governance and a separate economy, though the central government maintains control over foreign affairs and defence of the territory. Part of the reason Hinomoto was not granted independence was concern in Western Escar that an independent Hinomoto could succumb to a socialist revolution, a major fear at the time due to the heightened tensions of that period of the Escaric Divide.

In 2013, the Trade and Labour Party (TLP), then the main opposition party, abruptly adopted a pro-independence stance under Adachi Masahiro and formed the Leave 2025 Coalition with several other opposition parties. Among increased public anger at Yamatai for their involvement in the 2010 Masukan War, the TLP's coalition was able to win the 2015 elections, and began carrying out various "decoupling" policies in preparation for 2025. Various campaigns such as the Road to 2025 were carried out, promoting Hinoan independence and encouraging a full breakaway from Yamatai. However, Adachi and the TLP government led Hinomoto into a recession and also suffered numerous scandals and gaffes that eventually forced Adachi to resign and ruined general public perception of the TLP.

In the 2020 general elections, the pro-Yamatai Hinomoto United Party (HUP) was elected under Kawaba Fuminori. Since then, the new HUP government has been undoing various policies enacted by the previous government, though some critics suggest that the HUP may be intentionally seeking to sabotage the 2025 referendum.

The principal issues in the referendum are economic policy, defence arrangements, continued relations with Yamatai, and membership of supranational organizations, such as the Ordic League and HECO. The current HUP government has formed a task group to work together with representatives of the Yamataian government to chart a way forward for Hinomoto should either of the outcomes be achieved in the referendum.